Diaspora Risk Calculator
Assess structural economic vulnerability in diaspora-dependent economies. This tool translates key macroeconomic parameters into a composite risk profile, drawing on the analytical framework developed in Vol. 1, Issue 1.
Methodological note: This tool provides an indicative structural risk assessment based on simplified parameterisation. It is intended as an analytical starting point, not a substitute for comprehensive country analysis. Scores are composite indices and should be interpreted in conjunction with full research publications.
Parameters
Risk Assessment
High remittance dependency (18.4% of GDP) creates severe pro-cyclical exposure to diaspora income shocks
Unilateral euroisation eliminates exchange rate adjustment mechanism; all external shocks transmit directly to domestic demand and wages
Very high diaspora savings dependency (90%) implies acute vulnerability to inter-generational remittance decline and diaspora assimilation
Combination of high remittance dependency and rigid currency regime severely constrains counter-cyclical policy space
Develop domestic financial inclusion infrastructure to redirect remittance flows into productive savings and investment instruments
Explore diaspora bond programmes to channel remittance-adjacent capital into longer-duration productive investment
Absent exchange rate tools, fiscal space must serve as the primary counter-cyclical buffer — requires sustained medium-term consolidation during boom periods
Develop domestic institutional savings infrastructure (pension funds, co-operative credit, municipal bonds) to reduce reliance on diaspora capital in the medium term
Engage second-generation diaspora through investment-linked heritage programmes before assimilation reduces financial ties
Strengthen data collection on informal transfer channels to improve policy response accuracy during shock periods
For full country analysis and methodology, see Vol. 1, Issue 1. This calculator provides indicative scores only.